August 7th, 2009
INmobile.org released their first collective intelligence research paper today, titled “Harnessing Collective Wisdom to Forecast the Near Future of Mobility.”
INmobile.org – Harnessing Collective Wisdom to Forecast the Near Future of Mobility Aug 2009
The Idea in Brief
A problem presents an opportunity: Periods of economic slowdown such as the one we are currently operating within offers us the unique and incredibly valuable opportunity to reflect upon past periods of expansion and prepare strategically about the upcoming period of recovery and growth. This practice should be universal but often is not and too often the methodologies used are flawed, outdated, or both. The remarkable opportunity for assessment and planning may in part be unintentionally squandered when companies continue to rely upon the same perspectives and methodologies that have disappointed in the past regardless of where they are in the economic cycle. Previous techniques to forecast vary historically based upon cost and theory. Some rely upon internal perspectives, outside or analyst input, and market data. Often they range greatly in their level of sophistication, objectivity, and conjecture. While many remain valuable, they are perhaps too often relied upon. Here we begin to offer a more innovate and arguably more accurate means to acquire that knowledge. It is the tool of collective intelligence.
The idea of collective intelligence: Collective intelligence can perhaps be best understood as the intelligence which results from the competitive collaboration of a group of individuals. Published in 2004, The Wisdom of Crowds – Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations by James Surowiecki argues that the aggregations of information in groups results in decisions that are better than those which could have been made by any single member of the group. In Surowiecki’s book, he argues that under the right circumstances, groups are remarkably intelligent and often smarter than the smartest individuals within them. When faced with a cognition problem such as, “Who will win?” the idea of posing it to 100 experts was suggested as a collective ‘wisdom of the smart crowds’ exercise. As we currently seek to gain more informative and credible insights into the next five years of mobile technology, we should begin to take hold of this incredibly useful and adept tool called collective intelligence and apply it to the task.
The power of INmobile.org: INmobile.org is a private, global community of senior executives focused on mobility and convergence. This vital community of global wireless industry leaders enjoys both on-line and in-person events. Its private forum is fueled by a genuine and generous exchange of ideas, informed observations, timely information, empirical knowledge, and analysis.
The opportunity taken: In order to harness the collective intelligence and predictive abilities of INmobile.org, we interviewed one hundred senior executives from within this on-line community. We independently asked these executives the identical question during a one on one conversation and under similar circumstances. No previous conversations or predictions were referred to during these interviews in order to avoid the potential problem of ‘group think.’ Based upon this methodology, it is our expectation that the whole of the INmobile.org community represented by these one hundred executives will show itself to be significantly more than the sum of its many parts.
The question: We posed the question, “What industries will be most affected by the growth of wireless technology over the next five years?” This question was suggested during the INmobile.org member reception held on March 31st at the Wynn Hotel in Las Vegas, NV. Over 200 senior executives attended the private reception where the concept of “capturing the collective intelligence” of INmobile.org was initially discussed.
The executives who answered: The identification and selection of the 100 interviewees was done in two stages. The initial selection targeted fifty senior executives to represent the vital components of the mobile ecosystem with the broadest and most relevant perspectives for this specific question. These included mobile carriers, handset OEMs, OS vendors, and mobility focused venture capital and private equity. A ‘call to action’ was then sent out to the INmobile.org membership requesting additional participants in this research project. Those additional participants provided increased geographical reach and diverse areas of mobility. Telephone interviews were conducted from April to June of 2009 and were conducted by either Matthew Corbett or Mark Newhall.
The results: Consensus predicts industries most likely affected by mobility because the predictive likelihood is heightened if and when a majority of experts independently think the same industry will be affected. These findings have been aggregated and documented in the report.
For more imformation, contact Matthew Corbett at mcorbett@bsgtv.com or at 1-617-266-4333 x241.
